Forecasting and Predicting the Next Big Thing

 

The purpose of forecasting is to predict outcomes of events or future states that have not yet occurred. A framework and process for vision are established for many areas such as healthcare, weather, business, and education. (Seeman, 2002). The term prediction is more general when it comes to similarity. A forecasting method is a form of prediction method. Both use formal statistical techniques such as time series, longitudinal or cross-sectional data, quantitative or qualitative methods, or less formal judgment techniques. A prediction, on the other hand, refers to a more general estimate of values with a number of times happening over a long period of time rather than specific values estimated at a specific future time. (Garett, 2013; Ogilvy, 2015). For this task I will use the narrative story entitled Freeman Dyson Talks regarding Biotech compared to Nanotech narrated or rather authored by Blyler, J. (2009).

The infamous story

            According to Blyler, J. (2009), mentioned that there was a discussion with John Blyler, vice president and editor-in-chief of System Design Engineering Community, took place on December 4th, 2009, in which physicist Freeman Dyson shared his thoughts on technologies in the future of mankind.

A special emphasis was placed on biotechnology in Dr. Dyson's discussion of semiconductor technology. A mix of facts and personal opinions seems to have shaped the origins and growth of biotechnology. Biotechnology has been domesticated in the same way as computers have evolved analogously over the years. His conclusion was that computers were now becoming domesticated with the advent of much smaller computers. As far as technology is concerned, it is biotechnology that is fastest growing, not nanotechnology. Although biotech has been in its infancy for some time, it has recently become more common than nanotech.  Toward the end of the 1950s, Star Trek episode had theorized that lifeforms would grow around the interior of a colossal sphere that could surround a planet, like Dyson sphere. While Dyson sphere and nanotechnology have not yet reached their golden era, the technology he predicted has inspired many organizations and universities to pursue research and development (Garett, M. 2013). According to John Blyler, Dr. Dyson was primarily a mathematician and not a physicist, judging by his early work in electrodynamics and quantum mechanics. Dr. Dyson greatly agreed. During this casual conversation, Dyson felt inspired, excited by Dyson's humbleness, new ideas, and theories.

Impact forces

Ogilvy, J. (2015), predicted that nanotechnology would go mainstream in the 1950s in a simple but inspiring story. This did not happen in 2009 when stem cell research and gene splicing moved forward from behind. The common wisdom may be all and end all of disease management with the huge misconceptions surrounding stem-cell research and what it is capable of in biotechnology.   

The advancement of biotechnology and nanotechnology has had a profound impact on society, the economy, culture, and humanity. Technology, culture, human, and societal factors all influence these technologies. Technology, human behavior, and economics are three typical forces. Here are a few examples:

·        Research in nano-biotechnology and biotechnology is competing neck-to-neck thanks to technological force. Ten years ago, the majority of the population did not think about computers, mobile phones, iPads, social media, cloud computing, YouTube, etc. for instance. Today, these tools are cheap and easily accessible. There is still a high demand for nanotechnology, which is at the cutting edge. Managing diseases is one of the most important applications for biotechnology since it contributes to the health of people, society, and the environment. Every living thing on this planet is impacted by the technological force that drives these technologies.

·        People enjoy studying, researching, and innovating about themselves, others, and the world around them in light of human behavioral and economic forces. There is a great deal of emphasis on improving, innovating, bringing to the market, and inventing new tools, novel approaches, and better ways of solving problems (Ogilvy, J.2015). This is to improve the quality of life for people. By following Occam's razor or the law of parsimony, we can simplify life and make it better for animals and the environment at the same time with less cost and more efficiency.

To conclude, forecasting and prediction were described similarly in the writing. Biotechnology and nanotechnology were the topics of physicist Dyson's 2009 talk. These bio-nano technologies had a substantial impact on human life, novel technologies, and society in an interconnected world in which everything is constantly changing and integrating.

 

REFERENCES

Blyler, J. (2009). Freeman Dyson talks about biotech vs nanotech. Retrieved May 04, 2016 from http://www.chipdesignmag.com/blyler/2009/12/04/freeman-dyson-talks-about-biotech-vs-nanotech/

Garett, M. (2013). Traditional forecasting leads to traditional results...failure. Retrieved May 1, 2016 from http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewgarrett/2013/08/22/traditional-forecasting-leads-to-traditional-results-failure/#64836177c401

Ogilvy, J. (2015). Scenario planning and strategic forecasting. Retrieved May 2, 2016 from http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-forecasting/#661a1e006b7b